High school baseball: Xaverian Brothers of Massachusetts tops final computer rankings

One of the affects of the pandemic on the 2021 high school baseball season is that it forced some states to schedule fewer games, limit travel and play only in-state schools and limit non-league games within their own state. That made for some interesting twists to the final MaxPreps computer rankings.

Xaverian Brothers (Westwood, Mass.) defeated Leominster 2-0 for the Massachusetts Division 1 championship on Monday, leaving the Hawks with an 18-1 record and a No. 1 national ranking in the computer ratings. Xaverian Brothers finishes ahead of Barbe (Lake Charles, La.), the No. 1 team in the MaxPreps Top 25, which ends the year at No. 2.

One hypothesis for why a team can play less games against fewer unique opponents and rank higher in the ratings has to do with how the ratings work. In a perfect world, all of the teams in the nation can be rated against each other based on the premise that teams play a variety of opponents within the state and outside of the state. As results are compared, the algorithm makes adjustments to a team's ratings based on how its opponents have performed and how their opponents have performed against how their opponents have performed, and so on and so on until equilibrium is achieved.

High school baseball normally has a high number of games with many of those against teams from other states. However, limited travel and the cancellation of national-level tournaments (like the National High School Invitational) prevented this type of scheduling that normally would enhance the accuracy of the ratings. Instead it created "pockets of isolation" which made computer rating comparisons difficult.

There were situations like those in Massachusetts and North Carolina. In Massachusetts, schools played, for the most part, a league schedule with few (if any) non-league opponents followed by the state playoffs. With no play outside of the state by which to measure the Massachusetts teams, they were rated against themselves and thus their ratings stayed higher than they historically have been in the past. Case in point, no Massachusetts teams in the past 14 seasons has had a rating higher than 27.1, compared to Xaverian Brothers' rating of 35.64 this year.

North Carolina was similar, with the independent schools playing in March and April and the NCHSAA schools playing in May and June instead of at the same time with interplay between the two associations. There was thus very little play (if any) between those organizations, resulting in the independent schools being rated much higher this year than in the past.

This is not to say that the teams that were ranked in the top 100 computer rankings are not great teams. Nearly all of them are state champions with impressive ratings. The difference this year is that COVID prevented a more accurate (not inaccurate) depiction of how those schools rank against each other at the national level. Final MaxPreps computer rankings

1. Xaverian Brothers (Westwood, Mass.)
Record: 18-1 | Rating: 35.64
Division 1 state champion

2. Barbe (Lake Charles, La.)
Record: 39-2 | Rating: 35.44
Class 5A state champion

3. St. Mary Prep (Orchard Lake, Mich.)
Record: 43-1 | Rating: 35.17
Division 1 state champion

4. Madison Central (Madison, Miss.)
Record: 34-2 | Rating: 34.78
Class 6A state champion

5. IMG Academy (Bradenton, Fla.)
Record: 23-2 | Rating: 34.58

6. American Fork (Utah)
Record: 30-1 | Rating: 33.98
Class 6A state champion

7. Stoneman Douglas (Parkland, Fla.)
Record: 28-2 | Rating: 33.22
Class 7A state champion

8. Taconic (Pittsfield, Mass.)
Record: 19-0 | Rating: 32.76
Division 3 state champion

9. Madison (Vienna, Va.)
Record: 18-1 | Rating: 32.61
Class 6A state champion

10. Magnolia Heights (Senatobia, Miss.)
Record: 30-3 | Rating: 31.93
MAIS Class 4A state champion

11. Trinity (Louisville, Ky.)
Record: 41-2 | Rating: 31.56
Kentucky state champion

12. Orange Lutheran (Orange, Calif.)
Record: 30-6 | Rating: 31.41
Southern Section Division 1 semifinalist

13. JSerra Catholic (San Juan Capistrano, Calif.)
Record: 30-7 | Rating: 31.10
Southern California Division 1 champion

14. Harvard-Westlake (Studio City, Calif.)
Record: 29-4 | Rating: 31.051
Southern Section Division 1 champion

15. Jasper (Ind.)
Record: 31-2 | Rating: 31.049
Class 4A state champion

16. Jackson Prep (Jackson, Miss.)
Record: 35-3 | Rating: 31.01
MAIS Class 5A state champion

17. Sun Prairie (Wis.)
Record: 29-2 | Rating: 30.61
Division 1 state champion

18. Wayne Country Day (Goldsboro, N.C.)
Record: 19-1 | Rating: 30.42
NCISAA 2A champion

19. Keller (Texas)
Record: 35-8 | Rating: 30.12
Class 6A state champion

20. Broad Run (Ashburn, Va.)
Record: 16-1 | Rating: 29.86
Class 4 state champion

21. Archbishop Mitty (San Jose, Calif.)
Record: 24-5 | Rating: 29.64
Central Coast Section Division 1 runner-up

22. Baylor (Chattanooga, Tenn.)
Record: 27-4 | Rating: 29.63
Class AA Division 2 champion

23. Auburn (Ala.)
Record: 36-7 | Rating: 29.38
Class 7A state champion

24. Blue Valley (Stilwell, Kan.)
Record: 22-3 | Rating: 29.35
Class 6A state champion

25. Mount Paran Christian (Kennesaw, Ga.)
Record: 29-4 | Rating: 29.24
Class A Private state champion

26. Buchanan (Clovis, Calif.)
Record: 29-3 | Rating: 29.08
Central Section Division 1 champion

27. J.H. Rose (Greenville, N.C.)
Record: 16-4 | Rating: 29.05
Class 3A state champion

28. Coppell (Texas)
Record: 31-9-1 | Rating: 29.04
Class 6A Region 1 semifinalist

29. Ponderosa (Parker, Colo.)
Record: 21-3 | Rating: 28.93
Class 4A state champion

30. Deer Creek (Edmond, Okla.)
Record: 35-4 | Rating: 28.83
Class 6A state semifinalist

31. Charlotte Christian (Charlotte, N.C.)
Record: 22-7 | Rating: 28.81
NCISAA Class 4A state champion

32. Orono (Maine)
Record: 17-2 | Rating: 28.77
Class C state champion

33. Fort Zumwalt West (O'Fallon, Mo.)
Record: 35-5 | Rating: 28.70
Class 6 state runner-up

34. Parkview (Lilburn, Ga.)
Record: 30-10 | Rating: 28.69
Class AAAAAAA state champion

35. Farragut (Knoxville, Tenn.)
Record: 39-7 | Rating: 28.64
Class AAA state semifinalist

36. A.C. Flora (Columbia, S.C.)
Record: 29-4 | Rating: 28.60
Class 4A state champion

37. Roff (Okla.)
Record: 33-0 | Rating: 28.59
Class B state champion

38. Valley Christian (San Jose, Calif.)
Record: 24-9 | Rating: 28.56
Central Coast Section Division 1 champion

39. Liberty North (Liberty, Mo.)
Record: 28-6 | Rating: 28.52

40. Faith Academy (Mobile, Ala.)
Record: 34-6 | Rating: 28.45
Class 6A state champion

41. Live Oak (Watson, La.)
Record: 30-4 | Rating: 28.45

42. Sam Houston (Lake Charles, La.)
Record: 36-7 | Rating: 28.41
Class 5A state semifinalist

43. Liberty (Mo.)
Record: 32-9 | Rating: 28.38
Class 5A state champion

44. Yerington (Nev.)
Record: 15-1 | Rating: 28.38
Class 2A North champion

45. Marcus (Flower Mound, Texas)
Record: 29-10-1 | Rating: 28.37
Class 6A Region 1 semifinalist

46. Houston County (Warner Robins, Ga.)
Record: 33-7 | Rating: 28.35
Class AAAAAA state champion

47. Central (Martinsburg, Pa.)
Record: 22-3 | Rating: 28.32
Class 6A quarterfinalist

48. Jesuit (Tampa, Fla.)
Record: 26-3 | Rating: 28.31
Class 5A second round

49. Blue Valley Southwest (Overland Park, Kan.)
Record: 22-3 | Rating: 28.26
Class 5A state champion

50. Hickory Grove Christian (Charlotte, N.C.)
Record: 28-2 | Rating: 28.24
NCISAA Class 3A state champion

51. Eaton (Colo.)
Record: 21-1 | Rating: 28.24
Class 3A state champion

52. Hopkins Academy (Hadley, Mass.)
Record: 14-1 | Rating: 28.23
Division 4 state champions

53. Rockwall-Heath (Rockwall, Texas)
Record: 38-11-1 | Rating: 28.20
Class 6A state champion

54. Mosley (Lynn Haven, Fla.)
Record: 27-5 | Rating: 28.16
Class 5A state champion

55. Thousand Oaks (Calif.)
Record: 29-1 | Rating: 28.10
Southern Section Division 2 champion

56. Gregory-Portland (Portland, Texas)
Record: 35-4-1 | Rating: 28.08
Class 5A Region 4 semifinalist

57. Freeburg (Ill.)
Record: 36-3 | Rating: 27.99
Class 2A state champion

58. Penfield (N.Y.)
Record: 20-3 | Rating: 27.98

59. Bridgeport (W.Va.)
Record: 28-4 | Rating: 27.95
Class 3A state champion

60. West Monroe (La.)
Record: 27-9 | Rating: 27.81
Class 5A state runner-up

61. The First Academy (Orlando, Fla.)
Record: 31-1 | Rating: 27.79
Class 3A state champion

62. Springfield (Ill.)
Record: 31-5 | Rating: 27.76
Class 3A state champion

63. Timberline (Boise, Idaho)
Record: 24-3 | Rating: 27.70
Class 5A state champion

64. Normal University (Normal, Ill.)
Record: 32-4 | Rating: 27.66

65. Pleasant Grove (Utah)
Record: 27-6 | Rating: 27.64
Class 6A state runner-up

66. North Allegheny (Wexford, Pa.)
Record: 23-4 | Rating: 27.63
Class 6A state runner-up

67. La Salle College (Wyndmoor, Pa.)
Record: 26-2 | Rating: 27.51
Class 6A state champion

68. West Lauderdale (Collinsville, Miss.)
Record: 23-5 | Rating: 27.44
Class 4A state champion

69. St. John's Prep (Danvers, Mass.)
Record: 14-4 | Rating: 27.42

70. Sacred Heart-Griffin (Springfield, Ill.)
Record: 33-3 | Rating: 27.39
Class 2A state semifinalist

71. Marist (Chicago, Ill.)
Record: 32-5 | Rating: 27.34

72. Columbus North (Columbus, Ind.)
Record: 27-5-1 | Rating: 27.29

73. Edwardsville (Ill.)
Record: 31-4 | Rating: 27.28

74. Allatoona (Acworth, Ga.)
Record: 32-7 | Rating: 27.20
Class AAAAAA semifinalist

75. Rogers (Ark.)
Record: 22-7 | Rating: 27.14
Class 6A state champion

76. Bolles (Jacksonville, Fla.)
Record: 25-5 | Rating: 27.07

77. Fuquay - Varina (N.C.)
Record: 16-4 | Rating: 27.01
Class 4A state champion

78. Sterlington (La.)
Record: 33-5 | Rating: 26.95
Class 3A state champion

79. Lebanon (Va.)
Record: 19-0 | Rating: 26.94
Class 2 state champion

80. Lincoln-Way East (Frankfort, Ill.)
Record: 27-3 | Rating: 26.92

81. Briarcrest Christian (Eads, Tenn.)
Record: 31-7 | Rating: 26.91

82. New Albany (Ohio)
Record: 29-5 | Rating: 26.76
Division 1 state champion

83. Canfield (Ohio)
Record: 24-1 | Rating: 26.635

84. McQuaid Jesuit (Rochester, N.Y.)
Record: 16-5 | Rating: 26.632

85. St. Christopher's (Richmond, Va.)
Record: 22-1-1 | Rating: 26.49
VISAA Division 1 runner-up

86. East Catholic (Manchester, Conn.)
Record: 25-0 | Rating: 26.30
Class M state champion

87. Owasso (Okla.)
Record: 27-4 | Rating: 26229

88. Sumrall (Miss.)
Record: 31-5 | Rating: 26.227
Class 4A state runner-up

89. Tyrone (Pa.)
Record: 23-4 | Rating: 26.20

90. Bay Port (Green Bay, Wis.)
Record: 25-1 | Rating: 26.19
Division 1 runner-up

91. Central (Phenix City, Ala.)
Record: 34-9 | Rating: 26.16

92. University Liggett (Grosse Pointe Woods, Mich.)
Record: 31-5 | Rating: 26.15
Division 3 state champion

93. Huntington Beach (Calif.)
Record: 24-5 | Rating: 26.12

94. Hallsville (Texas)
Record: 33-9 | Rating: 26.06
Class 5A state semifinalist

95. Tupelo (Miss.)
Record: 27-10 | Rating: 25.98

96. Hillcrest (Tuscaloosa, Ala.)
Record: 27-10 | Rating: 25.97

97. Benedictine (Richmond, Va.)
Record: 19-6 | Rating: 25.925
VISAA Division 1 champion

98. Friendswood (Texas)
Record: 31-3 | Rating: 25.921

99. Jesuit (New Orleans, La.)
Record: 35-6 | Rating: 25.8746
Division 1 state champion

100. Van Buren (Ark.)
Record: 27-7 | Rating: 25.8742
Class 5A state champion