By Kevin Askeland
MaxPreps.com
As the playoffs near in California, the contenders for the five bowl games begin to separate themselves from the pack. There are still two weeks left in the regular season for the majority of the schools in the state, but the playoff picture is becoming much clearer.
All season long, CalPreps.com, which provides national rankings, scores and projections for MaxPreps, gives the leading contenders in the North and the South for the four divisional games (not including the Open division). At least seven teams have established themselves as the No. 1 contender in their area and division. While CalPreps, and the Cal-Hi Sports bowl rankings, are not used specifically to choose the bowl teams, they do serve as a guideline for the process.
In the Division 1 South rankings, Centennial of Corona has passed Long Beach Poly to move to the front of the pack. Both Centennial and Poly are 8-0; however Centennial has played a little bit stronger schedule, according to CalPreps. Part of the reason for the improved schedule is Centennial’s move to the newly-formed Big VIII league, which includes J.W. North, Martin Luther King and Riverside Poly from the old Ivy League. So far, however, Centennial has had little trouble dispatching with this teams, beating North 42-19, Poly 56-6 and King 38-8.
Long Beach Poly is ranked second, more than five rating points ahead of Tesoro of Rancho Santa Margarita. The better of those two teams could eventually be decided when the Pac-5 playoffs begin in the Southern Section. In fact five of the top six teams in the Division 1 rankings are from the Pac-5, not including Centennial, which resides in the Inland Division.
Battling through the rugged Pac-5 may eventually help a team like Poly, should it win the section title. Playoff wins count for more points in the CalPreps rankings and a strong run through a gauntlet that includes Notre Dame, Crespi, Tesoro, Mission Viejo, Edison of Huntington Beach, Los Alamitos, Mater Dei and Orange Lutheran could move Poly up in the rankings.
Centennial, which played in last year’s Division 1 bowl against De La Salle, does not have a cakewalk to the Inland championship. Chaparral, Rancho Verde and Miller, with a combined record of 23-1, stand in the way. The good news for Poly and Centennial is that if both win section titles, they can both reach the state bowl games with one team playing in the open division and the other playing in the Division 1 title game.
In the Division 1 North rankings, De La Salle, to no surprise, has emerged as the favorite, beating the No. 2 team, Monte Vista of Danville, 45-35 last week. The bad news for Monte Vista is that it will have to beat De La Salle in order to qualify for the bowl selection. Same goes for Pittsburg, which is 7-1 and ranked No. 3 with the only loss coming against Monte Vista.
Further down the list are 8-0 Grant of Sacramento, 8-0 Oak Grove of San Jose, 7-1 Bellarmine Prep of San Jose, 7-1 Granite Bay and 8-0 Gilroy. Grant and Granite Bay are both in the Sac-Joaquin Section Division 2 playoffs, meaning at least one of them will be eliminated from bowl contention. Likewise, Oak Grove, Bellarmine and Gilroy will all likely play in the open division in the Central Coast Section, leaving only one team from that group capable of qualifying for a bowl berth.
In the Division 2 South Ratings, Notre Dame of Sherman Oaks and Crespi of Encino of the Pac-5 are ranked 1-2 while Pac-5 teams Mater Dei, St. John Bosco of Bellflower and Servite of Anaheim are 4-5-6 in the CalPreps rankings. San Diego Section schools Cathedral and Oceanside are 3 and 7 respectively.
This could be a tricky one for the bowl committee. Since all of the Pac-5 schools must battle Long Beach Poly for the title, there is a chance that none of them will actually qualify for the bowl game. Notre Dame would be the obvious choice, should it win the remainder of its games. The Knights are currently ranked No. 2 in the nation by MaxPreps.
Should Poly win the Pac-5, this could mean that Cathedral and Oceanside, both favorites to win their divisions in the San Diego Section, will emerge as the contenders. Cathedral is ranked higher than Oceanside, but Cathedral actually plays in a lower division in the San Diego Section than Oceanside. Whether or not the committee would go with the rankings or make their own decision will be interesting to watch.
It’s not clear cut in the Division 2 North rankings either. While Valley Christian of San Jose holds a clear advantage in the rankings despite a 6-2 record (it plays in the very competitive West Catholic Athletic League), there’s a chance Valley Christian won’t qualify for the bowl game if it loses in the CCS playoffs.
That could leave Paradise of the Northern Section, currently ranked No. 2, St .Mary’s of Stockton, Pioneer of San Jose and Casa Roble of Orangevale as the other possible candidates. St. Mary’s has the toughest road, as it will have to win the Sac-Joaquin Section Division 1 playoffs in order to qualify. Pioneer will likely play in the Medium Division of the CCS playoffs, which will give it a good shot at a section title. Casa Roble also has to be considered a favorite to win the Sac-Joaquin Section Division 3 crown while Paradise, if it can get past Enterprise this week, will be the favorite to win the Northern Section Division 1 title.
If Paradise, Pioneer and Casa Roble all win section titles, the committee will have a difficult decision to make – similar to last year when it chose Novato over Foothill to represent the North in the Division 2 game.
In the Division 3 South, St. Bonaventure is ranked No. 1 and will have to get past Thousand Oaks, Oxnard and Valencia to win the Northern Division of the Southern Section. Oaks Christian is a clear No. 2 and is the favorite in the Northwest Division. The Seraphs likely finish the season with one loss while the Lions probably go undefeated. Still, St. Bonaventure has a much tougher schedule than Oaks Christian, which is a big reason why it is ranked one point higher.
In the Division 3 North, Cardinal Newman is the clear favorite, having already defeated its two main competitors, Central Catholic and Palma, head to head. The fly in the ointment for Cardinal Newman is that it will play in the North Coast Section Division 2 playoffs instead of Division 3. That means tougher opponents in the playoffs and a tougher road to a section title. Should Cardinal Newman falter along the way, Central Catholic once again emerges as the favorite. The Raiders are favored to win the Sac-Joaquin Section Division 5 crown, having already defeated its closest competitor, Hilmar.
This would be the same scenario as last year when Central Catholic and Cardinal Newman tied, but the Cardinals were considered the favorite to gain the bowl bid. However Cardinal Newman lost in the section playoffs and the Raiders won, giving the Raiders the opportunity to play St. Bonaventure. That same exact scenario could play out again, the only difference being that the Raiders actually lost to Cardinal Newman this year.
In the South Small Schools Division, two San Diego Section schools are ranked at the top – Christian of El Cajon and Parker of San Diego. These two teams will play at least twice before the bowl selection committee meets including once in league play and possibly again in the San Diego Division 5 playoffs. Other teams with a shot include Central Valley Christian of Visalia and St. Margaret’s of San Juan Capistrano.
In the North Small Schools Division, Ferndale ranked as the favorite for most of the season, but Modesto Christian has moved into contention and has actually moved ahead of the Wildcats and into first place by less than half a rating point.
Both Ferndale and Modesto Christian have the difficult task of playing in a tougher playoff division. The Wildcats were one of just two North Coast Section teams to opt for a higher playoff division (Cardinal Newman was the other), so Ferndale will play against Division 4 teams in the NCS playoffs even though it would be the heavy favorite to win the Division 5 NCS title. Nevertheless, Ferndale is the defending Division 4 champion and could win it again this year.
Modesto Christian, meanwhile, will have to get past Central Catholic, in order to win a section title and qualify for the bowl process.
Should both Ferndale and Modesto Christian lose in the playoffs, Modoc could be in line to earn a bowl berth. The Braves are 9-0 and the favorite to win the Division 4 championship in the Northern Section. Portola and Hamilton of the Northern Section are also in the mix with Portola at 8-1 and Hamilton at 7-2.
The CIF State Football Championship Bowl Games will be played Dec. 19 and 20 at the Home Depot Center in Carson. The selections will be announced Sunday, December 14.
