Usually happening at the end of the spring, the Major League Baseball Draft makes its midsummer debut this weekend — the same weekend as the 2021 All-Star Game in Denver. First-round selections are set to get underway Sunday night and culminate with the final rounds Tuesday morning.
COVID is the culprit behind Major League Baseball pushing back the draft, which has been held every year since 1965. Many states were still holding high school state tournaments in early June while the College World Series also ended later in June than usual.
Here are 10 things to know leading up to Sunday's first pick.
Marcelo Mayer, Eastlake
Photo by Steven Silva
Marcelo Mayer of
Eastlake (Chula Vista, Calif.) is tabbed by a number of mock drafts as the most likely No. 1 pick in the 2021 draft. The last high school player who went No. 1 was Royce Lewis of JSerra Catholic, taken by the Minnesota Twins in 2017. In the draft's 55 years, 27 high school players have been selected No. 1 overall.
If a high school player goes No. 1, he'll most likely be a shortstop
No. 1 player more than likely won't become a Hall of Fame player
While it might be counterintuitive to suggest that the No. 1 overall player in the MLB Draft won't become a Hall of Famer, the numbers show that to be the case. Of the 27 high school players chosen, only three (Harold Baines, Ken Griffey Jr., Chipper Jones) are in the Hall of Fame. Joe Mauer likely will reach Cooperstown. Alex Rodriguez clearly has Hall of Fame numbers; however, Rodriguez's candidacy could be postponed depending on how the sportswriters, who do the selecting, view his involvement with the use of steroids during his career.
No. 1 player will end career as above average player among the top 800 in MLB history
The average career WAR (wins above replacement) is 32.2 for 18 position players drafted out of high school and reached
the Majors (Matt Bush played more
professional games as a pitcher, so we'll count him there). A MLB Hall of Famer's WAR typically ranges between 50-70. Obviously, this number is skewed by players who've only recently been drafted and played only briefly in the Major Leagues so we will only count those players who have concluded their career. A 32.2 WAR puts a player in the same company as Monte Irvin (32.1), Darin Erstad (32.3) and Johnny Cueto (32.3)
Top overall pick will likely be from San Diego
Of all the No. 1 overall players, college and prep, five are from the San Diego area. They include: Stephen Strasburg, Matt Bush, Adrian Gonzalez, Brady Aiken and Mickey Moniak. Eastlake's Mayer, from the same school as Gonzalez, could make it six. No other city, or county for that matter, comes close.
Expect No. 1 overall pick from high school to play 10 years in Majors
The average career for a high school No. 1 is 1,583 games, about 10 seasons. Only three high school players chosen No. 1 overall (that are no longer playing) never reached the Major Leagues: Brady Aiken of Cathedral Catholic (San Diego); Brien Taylor of East Cataret (N.C.) and Steve Chilcott of Antelope Valley (Lancaster, Calif.).
Picking No. 1 is way better than Nos. 2 or 3
The average career WAR for a high school position player chosen at No. 2 overall is about 9.0 while a high school position player chosen at No. 3 is around 11.0. Thus, a No. 1 pick is about three times as likely to outperform picks directly following.
A run on shortstops is expected
According to several mock drafts, the top four high school players are all expected to be shortstops. They include Mayer, House, Lawlar and Watson, in various order depending on the mock draft. All are projected among the top eight picks, according to at least one mock draft. That many high school players from the same position going No. 8 or higher has happened five times. The highest quartet came in 2002 when Chris Gruler of Liberty (Brentwood, Calif.), Adam Loewen of Fraser Valley Christian (B.C.), Clint Everts of Cypress Falls (Texas) and Zac Greinke of Apopka (Fla.) went Nos. 3 through 6.
Eastlake will get its third first-round pick
If Mayer goes No. 1 overall, he would become the third Eastlake player chosen in the first round. Others include Adrian Gonzalez, No. 1 overall in 2000, and Keoni Cavaco, No. 13 overall in 2019. That would put Eastlake in an 11-way tie for sixth among high schools with most first-round picks. Hillsborough (Tampa, Fla.) has the most with six, including Dwight Gooden and Gary Sheffield.
If a high school player doesn't go No. 1
While just about every mock draft says the Pirates will take Mayer No. 1 overall, Pittsburgh has had the No. 1 overall pick four other times. Each time they've taken a college player. After winning 19 games last year (in a shortened season), Pittsburgh may look for a player who could reach the Majors a little sooner. Lewis, the last high school shortstop chosen No. 1 overall in 2017, still has not reached the Majors. A total of 31 college players chosen in the first round after Lewis have reached the Major League level while three high school first rounders since 2017 have done so.
